China Truck Sales Now Majority Electric. What's Next?

EV heavy trucks hit 50.3% market share in China for September, with sales up 34% from a year ago. Long-haul big rig market share hit 64.5%. China is on track to have over 40% EV market share for the entire year, reaching their 2030 goal in a matter of months. This is not the first time China’s heavy truck market share topped 50%, but that previous blip in December last year was prior to subsidies ending, followed by a dip in January. Current sales rates are not bolstered by the subsidy and are now on a much more stable upward trajectory.

📌 The Core Development

The speed of EV adoption for heavy trucks in China has recently grown much faster than for cars, having risen from just 13.6% in 2024. When I visited Guangzhou in November of last year and again in April of this year, I noticed a lot more green plates on trucks, indicating that they were electric. It seems that my perception is backed by sales data.

With the addition of LNG trucks, diesel’s share of heavy trucks has dropped to roughly 40%. While LNG sales have also declined with the rate of EV adoption, diesel trucks could soon make up less than 1/3 of sales and decline further from there. China could feasibly double its 2030 goal and hit 80% EV penetration, by which point many diesel models are likely to be discontinued.

🔍 Background & Sector Context

With these levels of market penetration, in addition to retirements, China’s diesel demand is on track to fall by about 230,000 barrels per day this year, despite increased freight movement. Every additional electric truck that replaces a diesel truck then builds on that reduction. Due to their duty cycle, each electric truck sold has a much greater impact on fuel consumption than each car sold. And the price of fuel combined with the duty cycle has a much greater impact on overall truck economics.

To be clear, these improving results are not due to subsidies, as they appear in the year after subsidies were cut. They are also not due to mandates, as the 2030 goals were met before the ink was dry on their announcement. EV trucks are now more affordable to own and operate than diesel trucks in China. The increase in diesel prices has only increased the cost gap.

📊 Industry & Real-World Impact

Last year, roughly 90% of all electric truck sales globally were in China. That percentage is set to expand this year, despite rising sales in some other countries. Those sales are simply not rising fast enough outside of China to keep pace with China. In comparison, the EU is looking at 2.5% EV market share this year. China is on pace to average roughly as many electric trucks sold per week as Europe sells per year. The US EV truck market looks like a rounding error in comparison at less than one percent.

🔮 Strategic Outlook & What Lies Ahead

In addition, China has rapidly been building out heavy truck charging infrastructure as part of the 28 million charging facilities planned to be in operation by the end of 2027, up from 21 million last March. This not only focuses on the major cities but also extends into more rural areas that have been slower to adopt electrification. In addition, several companies are building out battery swap stations. While we have yet to see if battery swap or MW+ charging wins in the truck market, expect the competition between the two approaches to be fierce.

Within Tier 1 cities, I could see a potential phase out of diesel trucks in the near future. Hainan province is already planning to end ICE passenger car sales by 2030 , and I expect that to extend to diesel trucks as well. Although rural areas have been slower to adopt, they also tend to be less wealthy and thus more impacted by the changing economics. If diesel prices stay elevated while charging becomes convenient, many rural businesses will not be able to afford to buy new diesel trucks. With the end of diesel truck sales, strict emissions standards and a potential return of scrappage incentives could take remaining diesel vehicles off the road at an accelerated rate.