Fuel prices are down slightly in the last day, with AAA reporting the average gallon of gas is down to $4.23, while diesel has dropped to $6.33. Crude oil is also down slightly, per OilPrice , even if Brent Crude is still over $114 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate remains over $100. That price relief came following reports that multiple Gulf countries are working on a peace deal that could maybe, possible, hopefully bring an end to the conflict. Which is great and all, except for the fact that the Associated Press reports three oil tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz . Oops.
๐ The Core Development
According to the AP, Iran claims over the last 24 hours, three oil tankers struck mines and caught fire while passing through the strait on an unauthorized route. The report didn't name the ships or include information on the number of people, if any, killed and injured by the mines. So far, the AP says it has been unable to independently verify the report, which originated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. One reason it may be difficult to verify the claims, however, may be that the tankers are out of contact:
Iran's navy said the tankers switched off their radar and navigation systems and ignored warnings as they attempted to exit through a restricted route. It said the damaged vessels were abandoned off the southern coast of the waterway.
๐ Background & Sector Context
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center said Thursday that a vessel spotted another vessel on fire while transiting the strait. It said it did not know the status of the crew on the burning vessel or how badly it was damaged. It was not immediately clear whether that vessel was one of the three referenced by the Revolutionary Guard.
Losing three tankers' worth of oil is unfortunate, but not remotely comparable to the likely loss of lives on board. It certainly won't help gas prices, but it won't send them soaring, either. The real problem is that tensions are already high heading into the midterms, fuel is already expensive, and the risk of hitting mines means fewer ships will be willing to risk the trip. We could also see shipping rates climb even higher to account for the risk , which could raise gas prices further.
๐ Industry & Real-World Impact
Aside from claiming its mines blew up three oil tankers, Iran also claims to have captured a U.S. MQM-170 Outlaw drone. The U.S., however, denies Iran's claims. From the AP:
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๐ฎ Strategic Outlook & What Lies Ahead
Iranian state television reported Thursday that the Revolutionary Guard, in an "electronic warfare operation," detected and identified the MQM-170 Outlaw drone, and took over of its control systems before landing it in Iranian territory. It did not say when the drone was allegedly seized.
"In the past weeks and months, the IRGC has repeatedly lied out of desperation, and today is no different," said Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for the Central Command. He did not provide more details.
