In August 2018, Rick Wilson, a long-time GOP media consultant, published a book entitled Everything Trump Touches Dies . In it, he argued that MAGA and Trump will ruin the reputations, careers, and stability of the people and institutions that choose to align with him. Recently, Paul Krugman and Heather Cox Richardson published separate posts on Substack that bring Wilsonโs warning forward to the present.
๐ The Core Development
Krugman based his article on the writings of Robert Pape, author of the Substack Escalation Trap , who argues that, as the loss of control of the House and possibly the Senate becomes more likely, it is making Trump more dangerous than ever. Krugman wrote:
โItโs a well-understood proposition that the owners of businesses that are on the verge of going bust often engage in destructive behavior. And Trump is about to go bankrupt โ not financially but politically. So he, like a failing businessman, has strong incentives to wreak havoc.
๐ Background & Sector Context
โPapeโs argument is basically a version of the phenomenon often called โgambling for resurrection.โ When a company is on the edge of failure, it makes sense for the owner to make highly speculative, even crazy investments that are highly likely to fail but might, just might, make enough money to pull the company back from the brink. After all, for the owner itโs heads he wins, tails his creditors lose.
โIn Trumpโs case, all indications are that his party is heading for defeat in the midterms. And while a normal president might be able to live with a Congress controlled by the opposing party, there has been so much corruption and malfeasance over the past two years that Democratic control of Congress, and the subpoena and investigative power that will bring, will have catastrophic consequences for Trump and everyone around him.
๐ Industry & Real-World Impact
โSo Trump has an incentive to do something โ anything โ that might shake up this election. Attacking Iran would probably lead to an even bigger Republican defeat, but it might, just might, rally Trumpโs base enough to change the outcome. True, a president who cared at all about what is good for America wouldnโt pursue disastrous policies for the slim chance of saving his own political skin. But this is, after all, Trump weโre talking about.โ
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๐ฎ Strategic Outlook & What Lies Ahead
According to Richardson, the Wall Street Journal has reported that Vladimir Putin has proposed a meeting next month with Trump and China President Xi Jinping to decide the fate of Ukraine.
The report explained that โa three-way summit with China and the U.S. would cement Russiaโs status as one of the worldโs three great powers, a status Putin has sought since 2000 when he entered the Kremlin. Such a summit would formally acknowledge that the U.S. had broken from Europe and allied with Russia, a goal for Putin as he tries to take control of Ukraine.โ
